The Road to Obama

Friday Cat Blogging

Disturbed in her slumber, Gladys responds with a cat's primary defense mechanism — extreme cuteness.

A quick plug

A couple of weeks ago, I posted a couple of pointers to layman's explanations of the financial crisis, including a This American Life broadcast from May. Those of you who enjoyed that show might be interested to know that they've done another one, covering some of the more recent developments.

Misery loves company

Think the economic situation in the U.S. is frightening? Consider Iceland. It was once a poor country, but a long business and investment boom, starting in the 1990s, gave it one of the highest per capita wealth figures in the world. A UN report in 2007 named it the best country to live in. As the credit crunch turns global, though, it's all coming unraveled. The kronur, Iceland's currency, has fallen by a third in the last month. This has raised fears of food shortages, since Iceland is heavily dependent on imports. Inflation is in the double digits. Many people have loans in denominated in foreign currencies, as as the kronur falls, their loan balances rise.

In the U.S., we're lucky in that we're insulated somewhat from the effects of currency fluctuations. We still produce many of our goods, especially food, domestically, and our economy is fairly diverse. Not so for smaller countries, which are more dependent on trade. And perhaps that's the real moral here — trade can bring great wealth, but it also creates vulnerability. As we transition towards a "service economy," as opposed to one that manufactures tangible products, we have to think hard about the effects of becoming more dependent on the rest of the world for basic goods.

Pretend maverickosity

Rolling Stone has kind of a devastating article about John McCain's real life story, which is awfully different from the version he's spent decades cultivating.

Some excerpts:

This is the story of the real John McCain, the one who has been hiding in plain sight. It is the story of a man who has consistently put his own advancement above all else, a man willing to say and do anything to achieve his ultimate ambition: to become commander in chief, ascending to the one position that would finally enable him to outrank his four-star father and grandfather.

In its broad strokes, McCain's life story is oddly similar to that of the current occupant of the White House. John Sidney McCain III and George Walker Bush both represent the third generation of American dynasties. Both were born into positions of privilege against which they rebelled into mediocrity. Both developed an uncanny social intelligence that allowed them to skate by with a minimum of mental exertion. Both struggled with booze and loutish behavior. At each step, with the aid of their fathers' powerful friends, both failed upward. And both shed their skins as Episcopalian members of the Washington elite to build political careers as self-styled, ranch-inhabiting Westerners who pray to Jesus in their wives' evangelical churches.

In one vital respect, however, the comparison is deeply unfair to the current president: George W. Bush was a much better pilot.

...

Back on campus, McCain's short fuse was legend. "We'd hear this thunderous screaming and yelling between him and his roommate — doors slamming — and one of them would go running down the hall," recalls Phil Butler, who lived across the hall from McCain at the academy. "It was a regular occurrence."

When McCain was not shown the pampering to which he was accustomed, he grew petulant — even abusive. He repeatedly blew up in the face of his commanding officer. It was the kind of insubordination that would have gotten any other midshipman kicked out of Annapolis. But his classmates soon realized that McCain was untouchable. Midway though his final year, McCain faced expulsion, about to "bilge out" because of excessive demerits. After his mother intervened, however, the academy's commandant stepped in. Calling McCain "spoiled" to his face, he nonetheless issued a reprieve, scaling back the demerits. McCain dodged expulsion a second time by convincing another midshipman to take the fall after McCain was caught with contraband.

"He was a huge screw-off," recalls Butler. "He was always on probation. The only reason he graduated was because of his father and his grandfather — they couldn't exactly get rid of him."

...

During his 1992 campaign, at the end of a long day, McCain's wife, Cindy, mussed his receding hair and needled him playfully that he was "getting a little thin up there." McCain reportedly blew his top, cutting his wife down with the kind of language that had gotten him hauled into court as a high schooler: "At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you cunt." Even though the incident was witnessed by three reporters, the McCain campaign denies it took place.

In the Senate — where, according to former GOP Sen. Bob Smith, McCain has "very few friends" — his volcanic temper has repeatedly led to explosive altercations with colleagues and constituents alike. In 1992, McCain got into a heated exchange with Sen. Chuck Grassley over the fate of missing American servicemen in Vietnam. "Are you calling me stupid?" Grassley demanded. "No, I'm calling you a fucking jerk!" yelled McCain. Sen. Bob Kerrey later told reporters that he feared McCain was "going to head-butt Grassley and drive the cartilage in his nose into his brain." The two were separated before they came to blows. Several years later, during another debate over servicemen missing in action, an elderly mother of an MIA soldier rolled up to McCain in her wheelchair to speak to him about her son's case. According to witnesses, McCain grew enraged, raising his hand as if to strike her before pushing her wheelchair away.

The whole thing is worth your time.

Lowering the bar

Over at Electoral Vote, The Votemaster has this comment about the upcoming VP debate:

"The Republicans have been bad-mouthing [Sarah Palin] for days now to lower expectations so that if she manages to put both a subject and verb in 50% of her sentences they can say she beat expectations. In truth, although she is not experienced in national affairs, she is not stupid. You can't be elected governor with an IQ of 90. She is unlikely to make many gaffes. The real fear is that she will make one humdinger of a gaffe...."

I think he's right that they're trying to lower expectations — otherwise why would her own campaign leak that she's doing badly in rehearsals? Even if she doesn't commit any major gaffes, though, and manages to beat expectations, it's hard to imagine her exhibiting the kind of grasp of international affairs that would reassure people about her readiness to be president.

Incidentally, while you're over there check out the state-by-state polling. North Carolina is a statistical tie. Who would have thought North Carolina could be in play? Even if McCain ends up taking that state, which is likely, this is still good news for Obama — it means the Republicans have to spend time and money defending that state, resources that won't be available elsewhere.

Bailout plan fails

The House failed to pass the bailout plan today. There's a lot of finger pointing going on, but the political problem is pretty simple. This plan is massively, massively unpopular with the public. No one wants to take the blame for passing it, for fear that the number "$700 billion" will appear prominently in their opponent's campaign ads. At the same time, no one wants to take the blame for killing the economy by doing nothing. The only way this measure can pass is if it's a bipartisan effort, so neither side can use it as a weapon against the other in future campaigns.

Now, the Democrats are in absolutely no mood to stick their necks out for a plan originated by the Bush administration, so they will not pass this unless a majority of Republicans will vote for it. The Republican party, however, is deeply divided; the conservative wing thinks this plan smells like socialism and has no stomach for it. So while both sides are taking some hits over the failure of this plan, ultimately it's up to the Republicans to get their act together if they want to see it pass.

While the failure to quickly pass this bill sent stock traders running for their fainting couches, it's not entirely a bad thing. The original bill was hastily drafted and no doubt deeply flawed. Panic is never a good state of mind to be in when passing legislation. Whatever does end up passing is quite likely to be a better bill overall.