<
https://theconversation.com/intergenerational-report-highlights-the-threat-of-a-hotter-less-productive-australia-due-to-global-warming-212121>
"Global warming threatens to have major impacts on Australia’s labour
productivity, agriculture and tourism over coming decades, according to the
Intergenerational Report, which makes climate change a major focus of its
projections for the early 2060s.
Climate change and the international energy transition will also have extensive
implications for Australia’s resources sector, with demand for thermal coal
falling dramatically and that for critical minerals increasing substantially.
The report, which projects four decade ahead, stresses the need for effective
mitigation of further temperature increases and targeted investment in
adaptation.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries have committed to hold the increase in the
global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and
pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
The report, to be released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Thursday, says over the
next 40 years, under a scenario where global temperatures increase by up to 3°C
by 2100, Australia’s average temperature is projected to rise by 1.7°C. But
there would be regional variations.
The average temperature in parts of central and northern Western Australia is
projected to rise by 1.8°C, but only a 1.3°C increase is projected for
Tasmania.
“This suggests Western Australia could be more directly affected by the labour
productivity impacts of higher temperatures than some other Australian states
and territories,” the report says.
“Similarly, some regional and remote communities, including Aboriginal and
Torres Strait Islander communities, are expected to be particularly exposed to
higher temperatures.”
If global temperatures were to increase by up to 3°C or more than 4°C, without
changes to present ways of working, Australia’s aggregate labour productivity
levels could decrease by 0.2%-0.8% by 2063.
This would reduce economic output over this period by $135 billion - $423
billion (in today’s dollars), through the direct impacts of higher temperatures
on labour productivity.
In contrast, if global action limits temperature increases to 2°C, Australia
could benefit from up to an extra $155 billion in GDP, compared with a scenario
where temperatures increase up to 3°C. This is equal to 26 to 41 million more
hours of work in 2063, the report says.
It notes that investing in measures to limit worker heat exposure, such as tree
planting or altering building designs to enhance passive cooling, can also
mitigate to some extent the impacts on labour productivity of higher
temperatures."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
