Where will the next megafire break out? Climate change is making it tougher to predict

Thu, 8 Jan 2026 22:57:31 +1100

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://theconversation.com/where-will-the-next-megafire-break-out-climate-change-is-making-it-tougher-to-predict-272807>

"Much of south-eastern Australia is currently in the grip of a heatwave, which
is expected to peak over the next two days. Heatwaves often trigger bushfires,
particularly if combined with strong winds.

Fires are already burning in Victoria and South Australia, and others are
expected.

However, heatwaves don’t always cause bushfires. Despite widespread heatwaves
in the summer of 2018–19, it wasn’t until the following summer that Australia
witnessed record breaking bushfires. These 2019–20 megafires were largely due
to severe drought, which coincided with catastrophic fire weather conditions.
These conditions primed the landscape for fire, with the megafires primarily
ignited by dry lightning storms.

Predicting when and where large fires will break out is getting more difficult
with climate change. This is due to complex interactions between climate, fuel
and fire across space and time."

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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