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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/14/how-iran-war-escalate-vietnam-trump-netanyahu-us-israel>
"In its current phase, the Israeli-US war against Iran and its proxies has
become a proving ground for two competing concepts of military escalation, each
of which threatens to become a trap.
On one side, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have failed thus far in their
ill-defined and shifting strategic aims. Despite killing Iran’s supreme leader,
Ali Khamenei, and other key leaders in the opening salvo of the campaign, the
clerical regime remains and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is
unsecured. Airstrikes are intensifying and hitting a greater number of targets.
Tehran’s counter is a “horizontal escalation”, one long prepared by the regime,
that is intended to widen the conflict geographically, with strikes on the Gulf
states, and also in terms of the costs to Washington and the global economy,
not least in energy supplies.
The coming days and weeks are likely to reveal important lessons, not least
about the potency of US military power in an increasingly fragile and
multipolar world.
Experts point in particular to the risks of an escalation trap – whereby the
attacker is drawn into an ever more complex, protracted and costly conflict
than envisaged at the outset – from a widening disparity in the US-Israeli
campaign between the tactical and strategic level. Put simply, the tactical
level involves specific military tasks – such as airstrikes hitting their
intended targets – where the campaign has been successful. The strategic level
defines whether the political and national security aims of the war are being
achieved and at what cost."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
