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https://freedium-mirror.cfd/https://medium.com/southern-winds/the-planet-has-shifted-gears-ecc6ea464883>
"Something has been shifting in the seasons you remember. The summers that used
to break by late August now hold through October. The rainfall that used to
space itself out now dumps a month's worth in a violent afternoon and leaves
the rivers dry for weeks afterward. If you are old enough to hold two versions
of the same season in your memory, childhood and now, you have already sensed
what a very recent study just confirmed in scientific language: the planet
changed speed around 2015, and the official models were among the last to
register it.
The study, by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, stripped El Niño cycles,
volcanic eruptions, and solar variation from five of the world's most trusted
temperature datasets, then measured what the human warming signal was doing
underneath. It had been running at roughly 0.2°C per decade since the 1970s.
After 2015, the adjusted data showed a rate of approximately 0.35°C per decade,
confirmed across all five datasets, across three independent statistical
methods, with greater than 98% certainty.
When the study came out, the scientific community tested it hard. Nathan
Lenssen, a statistician at the Colorado School of Mines, published a rigorous
challenge, noting that the ENSO filter is imperfect and residual natural
variability likely remains in the adjusted series. His conclusion, in his own
words: the acceleration in long-term forced warming "we can pretty confidently
attribute to anthropogenic effects." Zeke Hausfather and independent analyst
John Kennedy both flagged caveats while affirming the direction. The scientists
tasked with auditing the accelerometer ended up confirming the reading.
For fifty years, we drove this road with the speedometer pinned at 60,
budgeting time, fuel, and complacency. Then the instrument gets recalibrated
and the lie snaps into focus: we have been doing 105 for at least 10 years now.
Same road. Same destination. Faster impact."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
