https://theprogressnetwork.substack.com/p/hungary-shows-us-how-to-do-it
"It’s hard to imagine a more perfect demonstration of “what could go right”
than the result of Hungary’s parliamentary elections, which occurred this past
weekend. The opposition party not only ousted the country’s prime minister of
16 years, Viktor Orbán, but also won a supermajority in parliament, giving it
the room it needs to unwind changes that had turned Hungary’s political system
into an electoral autocracy.
The outcome was so unambiguous that Orbán conceded defeat immediately,
thwarting fears of violent street clashes or a long appeals process in the
courts. That his own fiddling with the electoral process to disproportionately
award parliamentary seats to the winner ensured his defeat was a cherry of
welcome irony atop an already delicious sundae.
Hungary was early in the recent global turn against democracy, and Orbán’s
brand of Christian conservatism became a model for far-right thought leaders
and politicians in the United States once the Hungarian government allegedly
spent millions on lobbyists to export it. Perhaps Hungary will once again be a
harbinger of things to come in America.1 Certainly, there are lessons to be
learned from what just happened there.
The essential takeaway is that victory in troubled democracies is possible even
when the odds are stacked heavily against it. Opposition parties had run
against Orbán four times before, and lost all four—until the right assemblage
of conditions emerged, including impossible-to-ignore failures of his
government, from economic mismanagement to rampant corruption.
Another lesson is that despite the world’s current resemblance to an autocrat’s
playground, the little guy is still in the driver’s seat. As scholar Larry
Diamond has noted about the modern era of democratic backsliding, the most
common threat to democracies is no longer military coups but civilian assaults
via legitimately elected populist leaders who erode checks and balances once in
power.
But it increasingly looks like it’s civilians—specifically, young people—who
will be the ones to reverse the damage. Record voting levels have been the key
to dislodging illiberal governments in Brazil and Poland in recent years, as
they were in Hungary, where turnout approached 80%. Support for Tisza, the
winning party, was strongest by far among Hungarians under 30. (I have no
proof, but I also wonder if, as social media natives, this group is also better
inoculated against cognitive warfare—dis- and misinformation, AI deepfakes, and
so on—that Orbán and Orbán-like figures have waged on their people. One thing
that certainly helped: Meta’s ban on political advertising. Orbán’s social
media outreach withered once it was made reliant on organic engagement.)"
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
